Divine Division: Could Sectarian Religious Conflict Engulf a Major Region?

Paper ID:

Last updated: 31/01/2012 09:08:31

Criteria:

Impact:

Likelihood:

Controversy:

Where: Regional

When: Unknown

How Fast: Months

0 people thought this paper expanded their thinking bullet

Keywords:

religion, community, international relations, security, conflict

Summary

A major sectarian conflict along one or more of the world's major religious faultlines could have destabilising effects around the world. Political instability or economic recession could be an axis along which conflict develops. Possible religious faultlines could be between Muslim communities the Middle East or Iraq, or Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland. Some of these conflicts could lead to a significant loss of life and political turmoil at a regional level, as well as hold wider international consequences.

Discussion

Sectarianism can broadly be defined as divisions within a group, such as different denominations within a religion, based on perceived differences. It does not necessarily result in conflict, but historically, sectarian divisions along religious and political lines have contributed to conflict.

Sectarian religious conflict has contributed to some of the most intractable, bitter and painful episodes of aggression and persecution throughout history. For instance, conflict between Irish Catholics and Protestants has existed for centuries, bound closely with nationalist identities, playing out globally in North American cities, as well as the streets of Belfast and Glasgow. Another faultline where sectarian conflict has contribute to wider conflicts has been within Islam. Certain Sunni sects inspired by extreme Wahhabism and other ideologies have declared Shi’as (and sometimes mainstream Sunnis) to be heretics and/or apostates.

Longstanding and emerging divisions within groups, particularly within religions, could become an axis across which violence and conflict are articulated. Divisions within confessional groups could have destabilising effects within a region and around the world. Recent examples of this are Lebanon (where both sectarian and inter-confessional conflict co-exist) and Pakistan.

Sectarian conflicts are complicated and cannot be separated from geographical, cultural, political and economic contexts. For instance, sectarian divisions could influence, or be influenced by, how people experience and react to global economic competition and domestic economic frustrations (for example, high unemployment among Saudi and Iranian graduates). Economic frustrations could deepen and exacerbate sectarian divisions, influencing the outbreak of violence and conflict. These factors lead us towards the possible “wildcard” of a major eruption of sectarian conflict in highly sensitive regions of the world such as Iraq, Pakistan or Northern Ireland, discussed in more detail below.

Iraq: Though complicated by ethnicity, social classes and social identities, sectarianism between Sunni and Shi’a Muslims, compounded by conflict with the Kurdish population, could influence future political stability in Iraq. Ethno-sectarian dimensions have shaped possible plans for future government structures in Iraq, such as the Biden-Gelb and Brookings Plans, which suggest varying forms of decentralising or partitioning Iraq along Sunni, Shi’a and Kurdish lines. With an American withdrawal, sectarianism is likely to strongly influence the evolving political, economic and social landscape in the country. Sectarian divisions could be an axis along which conflict develops between mainstream political parties. For instance, events to increase perceived marginalisation or isolation by one group, such as Kurdish marginalisation through a Sunni-Shi’a coalition, might incite violent conflict and political instability. [1] [2]

Pakistan: Conflict in Pakistan has strategic, territorial and ethnic dimensions. Islamic sectarianism in Pakistan could be fuelled by ongoing violence and conflicts in the Waziristan region that joins Afghanistan and Pakistan, which has a strong Taliban presence. Strong independence sentiments could provide a basis for religious militants and extremism. Divisions between Muslims (e.g. between mainstream and more extremist interpretations) could influence how Pakistanis react to militants and extremism. Reactions could be complicated through international politics, for instance pressure from the United States (US) to control militants could shape internal divisions between Muslims. [3]

Northern Ireland: Sectarian religious divisions in Northern Ireland are closely bound up with republican and loyalist divisions. In recent years, international support and the resource base for republican dissidents appears to have subsided. As well, dissidents and loyalists in Northern Ireland have decommissioned weapons. [4] However, sectarian conflict has not disappeared. In 2009 and 2010 there has been a continuation in political and sectarian violence in Northern Ireland, evidenced for example in a number of car bomb explosions. [5] Northern Ireland experiences approximately 1,500 sectarian incidents annually, such as arson and vandalism to religious buildings and symbols. [6] Marches continue to publicly display and promote sectarian differences. [6] The global financial crisis has slowed development in Northern Ireland’s economy; if economic hardships continue or increase, sectarian divisions might become a channel for people’s frustrations. More extremist and violent groups could use the economic situation to build support among a frustrated population. In 2010, the Government, Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist Party agreed to devolve justice and policing from Westminster to the Northern Ireland administration. Such an agreement could become a foundation for more peaceful relations within the country; however, they could also isolate more extremist republications and, in the court case, could be accompanied by an increase in violent attacks. [7] The ability of the administration of Northern Ireland to cope with the crisis, increase investor confidence and improve education, health and employment opportunities could influence the future of sectarian conflict in the country. [8]

Implications

International geopolitics, political instabilities (local, regional and global) or economic change could fuel the intensification of sectarian divisions, and potentially contribute to violence in countries such as Iraq, Pakistan or Northern Ireland. An escalation of violence could cost serious loss of life, which would have further negative impacts on economic productivity, social cohesion and community stability.

There could also be other important implications to an increase in sectarian violence. If violence were to escalate in Iraq along sectarian lines, British politicians and the public may need to reconsider their role in the Iraqi conflict and in the country’s politics and future development. If conflict in Pakistan were to inflame sectarian divisions between and among Sunni and Shi’a Muslims, or between moderate and extremist Muslims, [9] many people may migrate to avoid the conflict, placing a strain on receiving countries. In such situations, the UK would likely face serious challenges in determining how to respond. As is the case with most intra- and inter-state conflicts, governments would have to balance their position vis-a-vis sovereign nation-states, while offering aid and other support in humanitarian crises. An outbreak of sectarian conflict in the Middle East, Central Asia or South Asia could also affect Britain by affecting economic inward investment. Many major British firms have outsourced functions to these areas, which may suffer severely. Domestically, social cohesion could be affected if sectarian divisions abroad affect relations between communities in the UK.

Sectarian conflict in Northern Ireland would have much more direct effects in the UK as violence and conflict played out within UK borders, destabilising political relations between the levels of devolved government. This could increase the level of violence motivated by sectarianism, and could deepen divisions in communities and public institutions (for example, schools). Police and military resources could be diverted to focus on containing and limiting immediate sectarian violence, limiting the resources available to security forces to respond to other crimes or to international security concerns.

Early indicators

Increased street level sectarian violence.
Internationalisation of sectarian divisions from countries of origin to diaspora communities.
Increasing inequality of wealth and opportunity, accompanied by an increased use of sectarianism to articulate frustrations with deteriorating economic and social circumstances.
Elections of less secular governments (e.g. in Pakistan).
Increasing marginalisation of specific populations.[2]

Drivers & Inhibitors

Drivers:
Increased violence by militant extremist groups with sectarian platforms.
The language of the seige (e.g. Irish Protestantism’s “no surrender”) being used to guide public opinion.
Frustrations with poverty and political hardship in countries with existing sectarian divisions.

Inhibitors:
Long history of peaceful coexistence between ethnic and religious groups.
Realisation of economic/competitive mutual dependence.
Processes of dialogue e.g. Northern Ireland Peace process.
Political and economic incentives to promote stable international relations (e.g. US with a military withdrawal from Iraq).

Parallels & Precedents

French Huguenots versus Catholics.
Catholic/Protestant ascendancy in the religious life of early-mid Tudor England.
Conflict between Sunnis and Shias and between Sunnis and Ahmadis in Pakistan.

Social Bookmarking

Comments

Date/Time

User

People who viewed this paper also viewed

Headline

Sources

Ref.	Publisher	Date	Title	Category
1	American University International Law Review	2008	Williams, P. and Simpson, M. (2008). Rethinking the Political Future: An Alternative to the Ethno-Sectarian Divsion of Iraq. Am U int’l L. Rev.; 24: 191-248.	Econ
2	RAND Corporation	2010	Gompert, D., Kelly, T.K. and Watkins, J. (2010). Security in Iraq: a framework for analyzing emerging threats as U.S. forces leave. RAND Corporation. [online]	Econ
3	BBC	20/05/2009	Unknown author (2009). Q&A: Pakistan's Swat offensive. BBC News [online], 20th May.	Econ
4	BBC	26/05/2010	Kearney, V. (2010) Time to decommission commission? BBC News [online], 26th May.	Econ
5	BBC	23/04/2010	Unknown author (2010). Timeline of dissident activity. BBC News [online], 23rd April.	Econ
6	The Independent	14/09/2009	Unknown author. (2009) Leading Article: The lingering sectarian troubles of Northern Ireland. The Independent [online], 14th September.	Econ
7	The Guardian	05/02/2010	McDonald, Henry. (2010). Northern Ireland agrees power-sharing deal, The Guardian, 5 February.	Soc
8	Smithsonian	03/2010	Hammer, J. (2009). Getting past the troubles. Smithsonian [online], March.	Econ
9	BBC	25/02/2010	Unknown author (2010). Q&A: Kashmir Dispute. BBC News [online], 25th February.	Econ

Other Sources

Link

User

The contents of this paper were provided by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy.