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Will We Have Armies in the Future? Declining Recruitment Rates for the Armed Forces |
| Paper ID: |
27 |
Last updated: 18/05/2011 14:02:31
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Criteria:  |
Impact:  |
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Controversy:  |
Where: Domestic/National |
When: 11-20yrs |
How Fast: Years |
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| Keywords: |
military, security, terrorism, natural disasters, armed forces, conscription, government, public services |
Summary  |
| Armed forces in Western countries, including the United Kingdom, face recruitment difficulties. Social changes, including a more mobile workforce, availability of further education and young people’s changing professional expectations likely contribute to these difficulties. Rising negativity towards the armed forces as a result of the Iraq war and other recent military interventions could also be driving this trend. In the long term, recruitment challenges could limit the scope for national governments to project their influence globally and prompt alternative methods of recruitment and deployment. |
Discussion |
In the future, it is likely that the nature of armies could change, with different personnel structures and different types of operations. Nevertheless, regardless of what changes occur, for national armies to remain viable, they must continue to meet national defence goals and objectives. Recruitment declines could challenge the armed forces’ abilities to continue to meet such goals and objectives as personnel numbers will become insufficient for carrying out the necessary armed forces activities.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, the role of the British Armed Forces is “to deter and defeat threats to the UK and its allies, as well as to promote its interests and act as a force for good in the wider world” [1]. To date, discussions about the military focus on capabilities to destroy opponents in inter-state conflict. Current defence planning looking towards 2030 assumes an increase in complex stability building operations, though it also recognises that the exact nature of future threats is difficult to predict. There is also a trend towards an increased need for personnel for more long-term periods of time in stabilisation operations; such operations often require more manpower than high impact operations of short duration. The visibility of troops on the ground is felt to be necessary for demonstrating national military capability, acting as a deterrent to attack, maintaining stability and, if the above fails, defeating opponents. To continue to act in these capacities, future armed forces operations are likely to revolve around small, stable and cohesive teams, necessitating the retention of highly trained personnel. Military support could also be required within the UK to support the government’s counter terrorism strategy at home and abroad. At the European level, recent civil unrest in Greece, reflecting a general increase in revolutionary protests across Europe, highlights the possible need for the armed forces to maintain national order. [2] Finally, longer conflicts have increased the need for personnel and to incorporate reserves into the armed forces.
In the wake of strategic reviews and retrenchment after the end of the Cold War, British Armed Services numbers fell by 35 per cent between 1985 and 1998, [3] and regular reserve and Territorial Army numbers rose only slightly in the same period. For the armed forces to meet the roles described above, modernization and the adoption of a United States’ -style armed forces is generally seen as the way forward and as a means of counteracting falling recruitment rates.[3] Manpower also remains essential for international operations, national disaster relief etc., which are people-intensive.[3] Figures from the UK Ministry of Defence’s Annual Report and Accounts for 2008-2009 [4] show that the armed forces only reached 97.2 per cent of their overall requirements for trained personnel in April 2009, a reduction of the deficit from the previous year. However, plans are under way to increase recruitment and retention and it is anticipated that overall targets will be met for 2010. Nevertheless, the deficit remains greatest in the army; the deficit in the infantry increased from 8.5 per cent in 2007-2008 to 10.6 per cent in 2008-2009. The problems faced by the British Armed forces are reflected in comparable Western nations. In 2004, the US Army National Guard missed its recruitment target for the first time in a decade, and active duty (US) Army recruit targets were met only by tapping into a pool scheduled to report in 2005, and by lowering educational standards. [5]
Though overall targets for recruitment could be met in 2010, challenges remain. Some key challenges to recruitment result from changes in the make-up and attitudes of young people. These include the demographic decline in the number of young people; increasing health problems; little interest in a job for life; increasing numbers in further and higher education; and the possible negative impact of current events on the reputation of the armed forces. In addition, another factor that could contribute to recruitment declines is the low numbers of women and ethnic minorities in the armed forces relative to their percentage of the wider population. [6]
Future challenges in recruitment into the armed forces could also be linked to challenges in retention of personnel. Retention of highly trained and skilled leadership is particularly important; it is also where the shortfall in recruitment and retention of personnel is greatest. However, based on current trends, it is anticipated that more resources will have to be spent on recruitment than on retention. The MOD aims to broaden its recruitment base by making the military appealing to a broader spectrum of society, and retaining more personnel for longer in order to reduce the reliance on new recruitment. Along with the use of contractors for military tasks, there has been a drive towards outsourcing recruitment initiatives. [7] It could be particularly important and challenging in the future to maintain and integrate reserves into the regular armed forces, in particular for operations outside the UK. In part, this will depend on the support for the armed forces from the general public.
To address some of the shortfalls in personnel, the Ministry of Defence could increase the use of contractors, such as private military and security companies, and civil servants. [1] This is a consequence of a shortage of military resources (personnel and hardware) and a greater acceptance of the use of contractors for some military tasks. Some envisage a future where military action is outsourced both ‘upwards’ and ‘downwards’ – with United Nations peacekeeping missions completed by soldiers from Third World countries [8], and private military companies supporting Western troops in volatile regions. [9] Also, the number of defence civil servants providing support for the armed forces could continue to increase. [4] Defence civil servants are deployed in, for example, Afghanistan and Iraq and provide financial, policy and political, claims, commercial, intelligence analysis, media advice and specialised scientific support. However, outsourcing could be risky as private companies are not necessarily as accountable to the public as government. Greater outsourcing could be accompanied by difficulties, for example, as lawsuits towards private firms contracted by the US Army has shown in Iraq. [10]
While the armed forces may be unable to meet recruitment targets, national security could have to rely on taking every measure to ensure that existing personnel can fulfil their roles. Taking measures to retain trained personnel [5] is significantly cheaper than recruiting and training new personnel. Retention incentives could include career management, improved service conditions, career breaks, extended engagement, commitment bonuses, and other financial incentives. In March 2009, the Independent Armed Forces Review Body (AFPRB) recommended a 2.8 per cent increase in military salaries, as well as other financial improvements for personnel. [4]
Diversification of personnel in the armed forces could also be seen as increasingly important. Recently the armed forces published an Equality and Diversity Scheme and Action Plan for 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2011. [11] Diversity could help to increase creativity and innovation, support operational activities, strengthen teamwork, achieve cost savings, uphold the armed forces’ reputation and build for the future. In April 2009, women were 9.5 per cent of the UK’s Regular Armed Forces’ Service, an increase of 1.5 per cent from 2000 levels. [6] Through recruitment campaigns, the MOD aims to reach 8 per cent ethnic minority representation by 2013, as well as encourage recruitment of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender applicants and applicants from all religious groups. A greater focus on diversity could be one means of encouraging recruitment to the armed forces.
An alternative to voluntary recruitment, conscription could be a relatively costly means of recruitment to the armed forces. Spain, Italy, Portugal and France have abandoned their conscription programs in recent years. Spain actively recruits from South America to make up for the shortfall. [8] Germany, Switzerland, and the Scandinavian countries maintain conscription for ideological reasons, and to recruit non-military workers. However, despite costs, reinstating conscription could be an option to make up the short-fall in personnel numbers. |
Implications |
If recruitment challenges were to deepen, under-staffed armed forces could have serious implications for UK policymakers. Insufficient personnel could could weaken and impede Britain’s readiness to deal with national and international responsibilities, necessitating that other agencies assume greater responsibility in order to avoid reducing the number and scale of interventions. Fewer personnel could also make the armed forces unable to respond appropriately to natural disasters.
As well, weaker armed forces could affect the incumbent governments’ influence, national identity and pride could be eroded domestically, and international standing could be weakened.
There are a variety of policy responses that could be used in response to a decline in recruitment. First, the armed forces could consider new recruitment strategies. These could require developing a new image for the armed forces domestically, or diverting money from other areas of government spending towards recruitment. Alternatively, the government could return to conscription to meet recruitment targets. However, this would be costly and could possibly result in a backlash in public opinion, particularly among groups that are more reluctant to enter the armed forces.
Other approaches could include changing marketing strategies. Marketing could shift towards promoting the armed forces’ role in humanitarian aid, development projects, peace-keeping and infrastructure development. As well, there could be a greater focus on recruiting underrepresented segments of the population, such as women and ethnic minorities.
A shortage of personnel could also lead the government to focus on less personnel-intensive operations. This could require the UK government to be selective and strategic in its international image, seeking to limit tensions and look for other ways to provide for national security, such as through trade agreements or commitment to international organisations. Alternatively, personnel constraints could force governments to revive or forge new strategic partnerships and coalitions when seeking to deploy armed forces. The UK government’s dependence on partners and coalitions could become increasingly important. In addition, its ability to commit troops to operations by the UN or other international organisations could be challenged, with the UK less able to demonstrate commitment through the deployment of personnel. Finally, reliance on new technologies, such as drones, could increase. However, such reliance could also require considering value for money and potential risks involved in investing in new technologies. |
Early indicators |
Increase in the number of desertions and in numbers of personnel who choose not to extend their contracts.
Significant year on year reductions in the staffing levels of key units.
Increased spending on recruitment campaigns/changes in marketing tactics of recruitment campaigns, but little success in increasing recruitment levels.
A focus on peacekeeping in armed forces recruitment campaigns.
Lowering of barriers to entry of military units. |
Drivers & Inhibitors |
Drivers:
Wider international engagement.
Longer tours of duty.
Prominent media stories of military casualties, or other negative stories about army life.
Low unemployment.
Fewer young people available to recruit (demographics, higher education, lack of interest in a career for life).
Level of military salaries in comparison to other comparable professions.
Increase in perceived danger of military service and low public support for interventions.
Lack of diversity in the armed forces.
Inhibitors:
Higher military salaries and/or improved benefits for military personnel.
Reduction in the number or length of military tours overseas.
A shift in perceptions of the army to peacekeeping or humanitarian role, which is enough to encourage recruitment.
Shifting perceptions of military careers as 'professional' rather than 'vocational'.
Effective, targeted recruitment.
Flexibility in military engagements.
Increased diversity in the armed forces.
Public support for UK military engagements internationally and domestically. |
Parallels & Precedents |
End of conscription on the continent, although this has not necessarily only been due to a fall in recruitment rates.
Problems in recruitment of other public sector key workers (e.g. nursing staff). |
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Sources |
| Ref. | Publisher | Date | Title | Category |
| 1 | Ministry of Defence | 2008 | UK Ministry of Defence. (2008). Future Land Operational Concept (FLOC) 2008. The Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre, October. [online] | Pol |
| 2 | Jane's Intelligence Review | 14/05/2009 | Tupman, Bill. (2009). Anarchy in the EU – Protest is once again on the rise in Europe. Jane’s Intelligence Review, Article, 14 May. | Pol |
| 3 | Other | 1999 | Unterseher, Lutz. (1999). Europe’s Armed Forces at the Millennium: A Case Study of Change in France, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Project on Defense Alternatives. Briefing Report #11, November. | Pol |
| 4 | Ministry of Defence | 2009 | UK Ministry of Defence. (2009). Annual Report and Accounts, Vil. 1 2008-2009. Annual Performance Report. [online] | Pol |
| 5 | The Times Magazine | 2004 | Monaghan, Elaine. (2004). 'US Army plagued by desertion and plunging morale', The TImes, 10th December. [online] | Pol |
| 6 | BBC | 25/10/2000 | BBC News Online. (2000). ‘Army recruitment policy criticised’ 25 October. [online] | Pol |
| 7 | Jane's Intelligence Review | 10/08/2009 | White, Andrew. (2009). UK progresses privatisation of armed forces recruitmen. Programme Update, Janes’ Intelligence Review, 10 August. | Pol |
| 8 | The Guardian | 19/07/2005 | Clark, Andrew. (2005). 'Australia recruits British squaddies while army remains short-staffed', The Guardian, 19 July. [online] | Pol |
| 9 | Ministry of Defence | | UK Ministry of Defence. (date unknown). The Defence Vision. [online] | Pol |
| 10 | Reuters | 25/05/2007 | Debusmann, Bernd. (2007). Lawsuit in outsourced U.S. war is moved out of court. Reuters, 25 May. | Pol |
| 11 | Ministry of Defence | 2008 | UK Ministry of Defence. (2008). Equality and Diversity Schemes 2008-2011: Incorporating Armed Forces, Wider Ministry of Defence and Minisstry of Defence Police. [online] | Pol |
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| The contents of this paper were provided by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy. |
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