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Virtually Criminal: the Rise of Internet Crime |
| Paper ID: |
163 |
Last updated: 10/05/2011 14:28:44
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Criteria:  |
Impact:  |
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Controversy:  |
Where: Global |
When: 0-2yrs |
How Fast: Years |
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| Keywords: |
crime, economy, espionage, business, online, e-commerce, fraud, id theft, paedophilia, Internet, security. |
Summary  |
| Hacking could be increasingly motivated by monetary reward, with organised criminals becoming more active online. The main types of internet crimes are likely to be online fraud (identity theft) and corporate, criminal or political espionage. Because of the internet's global span, crimes would be committed regardless of borders. Companies may have to spend large sums on internet security, creating a thriving industry. |
Discussion |
Online crime could cease to be the domain of hackers seeking bragging rights, but increasingly incentivised by monetary reward. Organised criminals may move in, committing new and ever more sophisticated crimes. The main types of internet crimes may be online fraud (theft of sensitive personal information to execute fraudulent online transactions and identity theft) and corporate, criminal or political espionage [1].
The cost to large UK companies due to high technology crimes was estimated in 2005 at £2.45 billion [2] ; Paedophile activity (online grooming and distribution of images) is also on the rise [3] .
These crimes are conducted in a variety of manners, some wholly online, others existing partly in the physical world, such as through the theft of details or insider information. Over time, the public are likely to become increasingly aware of such ploys, prompting a constant change in tactics from criminals as attacks that rely on gullibility or ignorance may in future be more difficult [4] , [5] .
Because of the internet's global span crimes would be conducted across borders [2] making detection difficult and jurisdiction complicated. Companies may have to spend large sums on internet security, creating a thriving industry [6].
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Implications |
Countries with a strong base of IT-skilled workers and poor prospects within legitimate employment could increasingly become centres of criminal activity, from which attacks are mounted against businesses and individuals in other countries.
An international internet policing agency and legal framework may need to be established. Criminal activity would seek to exploit all types of IT. For example, there already exist programmes that will attack the mobile phone networks and viruses that will destroy them [7] . Software may be created that can travel between wireless devices, then broadcast to all others in the vicinity and collect information along the way, making wireless users the vectors for distribution. When these devices attach to the internet they will send sensitive data to a host.
As the digital security organisations improve, their software will be more effective and they will react faster, making it harder for unskilled hackers to operate.
Malicious software will probably only have a small window of opportunity to penetrate systems before counter-software is distributed. This could lead to more rapid and inventive creation of threats [8] . Because of the added difficulty likely to create them they may be reserved for the perpetration of one-off large crimes.
At the same time, these criminal organisations may be more focused towards attacking organisations rather than individuals. In parallel, amateur hackers may mount ongoing attacks against private consumers undermining e-commerce and thereby 'killing the golden goose'.
Companies may routinely be blackmailed by extortionists who will threaten to crash their operations. Many of the old style hackers, those not looking for commercial gain, could realise that this situation is damaging the internet, a medium to which they are devoted, and turn their attention from exposing security flaws in organisations towards locating and counter-assaulting the organised criminals. Encryption technology will grow rapidly both to serve hackers/criminals and legitimate operators on the internet.
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Early indicators |
| Continuous increase in penetrations. |
Drivers & Inhibitors |
Drivers:
Proliferation of opportunities for online theft as more and more money is transacted there.
More complex networking and linkages create more security weak spots. (e.g. wireless)
Inhibitors:
Anti-virus software, encryption and other technologies to prevent criminal access.
Computer companies become more serious about making their software secure.
More effective international co-operation of police forces.
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Parallels & Precedents |
The cost to large UK companies due to high technology crimes was estimated in 2005 as £2.45 billion [2] ;
Paedophile activity (online grooming and distribution of images) is on the rise [3] .
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Sources |
| Ref. | Publisher | Date | Title | Category |
| 1 | Other | | National Crime Squad (2005), 'E-crime costing British business billions- survey discovers £2.45 billion loss' 5th April | Soc |
| 2 | Other | | 'About the National Crime Squad' National Crime Squad  | Soc |
| 3 | Other | | Morris, Sheridan (2004) 'The Future of Netcrime Now: Online Report 62/04', The Home Office, December | Soc |
| 4 | The Economist | | The Economist (2003) 'Fighting the Worms of Mass Destruction', November 27th | Soc |
| 5 | Other | | Home Office Identity Theft Homepage | Soc |
| 6 | BBC | | BBC News Online (2005) 'Criminals Challenge the Police', 8th April | Soc |
| 7 | Longman | | Walker, Clive; Akdeniz, Yaman, Wall, David (2000) 'The Internet, Law and Society' London: Longman | Soc |
| 8 | BBC | | [2] BBC News Online (2005) 'Online Stores Come Under Attack', 18th May | Soc |
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| The contents of this paper were provided by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy. |
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