Age and Engage: "Global Greying" to 2030 and the Rise of the Empowered Senior Citizen

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Last updated: 13/05/2011 16:07:50

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Where: Regional

When: 21-50yrs+

How Fast: Years

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Keywords:

ageing, population, demographics, pensions, retirement

Summary

Discussion

Those over 65 are healthier and living longer. The set retirement age may be scrapped, allowing people to mix work with leisure. Though healthcare may be an increasing economic burden on the state, it may not be unmanageable. Older people’s greater tendency to vote may result in a power shift as political parties court their vote. Intelligent domestic systems, and new drugs, may aid self-sufficiency.

ONS Projections [1] for 2030 indicate a relatively rapid ageing of the UK population over the next 30 years, and robust sources such as the Pensions Commission [2] project life expectancy among men at 65 years to rise from 84 today to around 87 years by 2030. Some experts have even gone further than this, with some optimistically projecting average life expectancy of 100 years of age [3], or higher [4]. However, even the most authoritative sources have been surprised by the increases in longevity over recent years and have had to revise estimates substantially, suggesting a high degree of uncertainty [5] , [6].

The outcome of this is that even the most cautious estimates suggest that by 2020 one fifth of the UK population will be over 65 years old and nearly half of these will be will be aged 75 years and over, and by 2030, it is estimated that nearly half the population of Western Europe will be over 50 years. [5]. As affluence rises and longevity increases, we are already witnessing rapidly declining fertility in many developing economies [5] , the speed of which has, for example, caused the UN to revise its population growth estimates several times in recent years.

This widely discussed phenomenon, dubbed the “Age shift” by the OSI Foresight programme [7], is by no means likely to be confined to the UK or other developed economies, and will be likely to have an effect on an increasing number of developing countries also.

The “Age and Engage” mini-scenario put forward by this paper sketches out a world in which the senior citizens of 2030 (the 65yrs+ cohort) have grasped new and powerful means by which to pursue their social, political and economic interests. This has been achieved through a combination of their new found electoral, technological and cultural strength, and the growing pressures of competition in a global economy in which more and more of the population are required to be economically productive in order to sustain their living standards.

In parallel, we might expect a cultural shift in which societies previously in thrall to the cult of youth have rediscovered their appreciation for the value of older citizens.

In the Age and Engage world of 2030, this now confident and assertive age group have been offered a new lease of life through a combination of advances which render current associations with “old age” obsolete.

These advances are likely to arise in science (e.g. understanding of genetic research [4], healthcare (e.g. cancer mitigation [5]) and technology (e.g. cognitive enhancement drugs [8]), equipping people previously considered ready only for retirement with the intellectual, economic and physical means to compete for positional, social and material goods on a much more equal footing with those much younger themselves. Less “retirement” then, and more “engagement”.

We might argue that this is merely a reversion to the traditional pattern of human societies, in which elders in society are accorded higher status, and provided with many levers of power and influence. The youth-focussed era that has dominated much of modern global culture since the 1950s could in fact be seen as a temporary anomaly.

Implications

New categories of economic activity are likely to be stimulated by a shift of the demographic mix towards those over 65yrs, and a host of new business and markets may be geared towards servicing their needs. Areas such as nursing, geriatrics, holistics, longevity spas, cosmetic surgery, fitness, travel and education are all likely to prosper from the burgeoning 'grey' market [9].

Older employees will be looking to compete in the same markets as much younger workers, creating greater competition for relatively scarce job opportunities in a more globalised, pressured working environment. We would anticipate a growth in stress and anxiety-related health problems among the elderly and strains on their relationships from these newly adopted practices.

Cognitive enhancement drugs [8], cosmetic surgery, bionics and other physical augmentation technologies are likely to be in high demand among those seeking to negate the effects of ageing and overcome these physical and mental barriers.

These technologies may offset some of the likely health problems encountered by the current “unhealthy” cohort [5] as they age, in terms of obesity, alcohol and stress-related infirmity.

Also, with lifestages being inexorably delayed, the grandparents of 2030 may be too old to look after their grandchildren in an active way.

Medical treatment would be likely to develop into a globalised market as medical tourism takes off, leading to competition and lower costs [10], [11], [12].

Governments could remove tax, social security, pension, and other impediments to the employment of the elderly. Heavy penalties would be imposed on those exhibiting discrimination, but this would perhaps become less prevalent anyway as the population aged and this lifelong working became normalised.

Indeed the Age and Engage scenario, and other outlooks like it, are predicated on a great expansion in flexible and part time working [13], a decline in the demand for early retirement and the upward extension of the official retirement age. This would in part compensate for the rigours of the competitive work place, but would suggest a much more uncertain and contingent working life for a large proportion of the population.

As people live longer it may be less socially acceptable to demand intensive 'end of life' treatment (last 30 days) from the state as these are highly cost intensive with little health benefits [14]. This is in fact where most of the cost of sustaining an ageing population is created.

Greater personal responsibility for care in old age is likely to emerge as a norm. Attitudes to inheritance are likely to change as older citizens place their children’s legacy lower down their priority list and do not expect to pass on significant wealth [6].

In the political arena, intergenerational tension may increase as younger cohorts find themselves increasingly frozen out of opportunities to advance, and older cohorts jealously guard their positional and material advantages in a world where the great majority of assets are held by the older generation.

In this scenario, politics and political values themselves becomes more informal, less tribal and less bombastic with the advent of Generation X in positions of authority, and the passing of the Baby Boomer generation from the political scene.

However, with their historical track record of protest and culture change, the latter are likely to be at the vanguard of attempts to change cultural attitudes towards the elderly and “rage against the dying of the light” by whatever scientific, political or cultural means they can grasp (witness the current phenomenon among retired Boomers of “SKIers” – Spend the Kids Inheritance)

Early indicators

Retirement age pushed up to 70;
Age-based political and social movement contests seats at General Election, making sizable showing;
First advertising agency established staffed purely by over 45s; proportion of UK GDP generated by over 65s stands at 35% above 2006 levels;
First Olympic games staged, allowing bionic and other enhancements.
Athletes at 45-55 years old compete successfully against 18-25 year olds

Drivers & Inhibitors

Drivers:
Improvements in health care;
Breakthroughs in combating diseases that affect the elderly such as Alzheimers;
Cultural shifts towards the valorisation of the elderly in society.

Drivers of declining fertility include better education, family planning, the role of the mass media, access to TV, wider career options for women, economic pressure on incomes, rising individualism and expectations for living standards and peer pressure to have fewer children.

Inhibitors:
Few commentators have suggested significant inhibitors to this scenario; however serious environmental and health shocks or pressures greatly impacting on life expectancy, for example the rise of drug-resistant killers such as TB, severe resource scarcity (e.g. water stress) and/or major disruption to food supply caused by rapid climate change.

Further inhibitors include ongoing discrimination in the workplace; continued inflow of young migrant workers undercutting potential older employees and the prohibitive expense for the public and private sectors of creating markets and services to cater for ever for the increasing demands of older citizens; potential inadequacy of financial provision for old age, through pensions, savings and other means.

Parallels & Precedents

Gerontocratic political systems such as Communist China and theocratic Iran.
Increased longevity is increasing what we determine as being a gerontocratic society (typically those aged 70 plus in positions of authority).
Mandatory retirement ages have been imposed in many such situations to prevent a cabal of elderly oligarchs ruling unchallenged.
Village and tribal elders around the world e.g. the system of tribal jirgas in Afghanistan Veneration of elders and ancestors in Shinto and Confucian ideology.
Parallels in science fiction:
(From Wikipedia) The science fiction novel “Holy Fire” by Bruce Sterling deals with a future society, in which life expectancy has been expanded to more than two centuries by means of medicine and technology to the effect that the gerontocrats wield almost all capital and political power.
Adolescents and young (and by modern standards middle-aged) adults live as outsiders with virtually no access to wealth or power.

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Sources

Ref.	Publisher	Date	Title	Category
1	Other		The Office for National Statistics (2002) 'Population: 19.8 million aged 50 and over in UK'	Soc
2	Other		GAD and Pensions Commission Life expectancy models	Soc
3	BBC		Dr. Shripad Tuljapurkar of Stanford University. BBC News Online article on his predictions of life expectancy rising to 100	Soc
4	Other		Demos Pamphlet - ‘Better Humans: The politics of human enhancement and life extension’	Soc
5	Oxford University Press		Harper, Sarah (2004) 'Families in Ageing Societies', Oxford University Press	Soc
6	Other		Outsights/MORI interview with Dr Sarah Harper 2005	Soc
7	Office of Science and Technology	2000	The Age Shift – Priorities for Action, Foresight	Soc
8	Foresight	07/2005	Drugs Futures 2025? The Scenarios	Tech
9	Wired Magazine		Wired Magazine (2000), 'Jack', December	Soc
10	Wired Magazine		Sterling, Bruce (2005) 'First Aid for Health Care', Wired Magazine, May	Soc
11	Other		MedicalTourism website	Soc
12	Other		TreatmentChoices website	Soc
13	The Institute of Fiscal Studies		The Institute of Fiscal Studies (2002) 'Retirement, Pensions & the Adequacy of Saving', October	Soc
14	Wired Magazine		Finnigan, Daniel (2004) 'What will the hot jobs be in 25 years?', Wired Magazine, December	Soc

Other Sources

Link	User
Age Positive	JB2
McKinsey Quarterly	JB2

The contents of this paper were provided by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy.