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Brazil: A Potential Scientific Leader
Issue ID: 539 Last updated: 15/01/2009 09:00:26
Criteria: Impact:  Likelihood:  Controversy:  Where: Unknown When: 11-20yrs How Fast: Years
Keywords: Knowledge, communication & learning - Brazil, organisation of science, innovation, reverse migration, international collaboration
Abstract
Summary
Brazil could emerge as one of the world's leading scientific powers by 2025, if it pursues a policy of intelligent investment and maximises the benefits of international collaboration.

In the last 20 years, Brazil's scientific community and infrastructure have grown substantially, both in size and quality. The number of scientists trained domestically has grown eightfold in the last 15 years; funding for scientific research has increased (though unsteadily); and output, as measured by numbers of patents and scientific articles, has also grown. Brazil has pockets of world-class scientific research, particularly in genomics, information technology, tropical medicine, and agriculture.

However, several forces have worked to keep the Brazilian scientific community from developing further. Science funding, while increasing, still remains low (about 0.5% of GDP). Intellectual property rights are not adequately protected, and the patent system is complicated. More broadly, Brazil's economy is still dominated by extractive industries and agriculture, and only a minority of the population complete secondary school. If these trends continue, Brazilian science is likely to remain as it is today: strong in a few areas and world-class in a smaller number but contributing little to the national economy and public culture.

If Brazil is to expand the number of areas in which it is recognized as a world leader in the next 20 years and make a steady transition to more knowledge-intensive industries, change is needed in a number of areas including the following:

International cooperation -- Brazil is a participant in a large number of research consortia and joint projects with scientists in North America and the EU. The best of these have proved successful in helping train Brazilian technicians and researchers, and in the future will likely contribute to institution-building efforts within Brazil and serve as an important channel for collaboration between Brazilian and international scientists.
Reverse migration -- Anecdotal evidence suggests that Brazil has less of a brain drain problem than other developing countries: a large number of Brazilian scientists eventually return to Brazil after training and working abroad, and most scientists trained in Brazil remain. Further, Brazilian scientific expatriates are beginning to establish research centers in their home country.
Changes in academic culture -- Academic scientists have demonstrated low interest in patenting and commercialising research. Establishing academic-industry joint ventures, campus incubators, and regional funds to provide angel-stage investment and advice would help improve transfer of academic expertise and greatly improve Brazil's track record of innovation.
Decentralization -- Fully half the nation's scientists are located in the state of Sao Paolo, and another quarter are in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Some of the most innovative emerging institutions, research efforts, and science parks, in contrast, are in smaller cities like Campinas and Refice.

Growth of the open source movement -- Brazilian technologists and science policymakers have developed a strong affection for open source software, and open source methods of producing and sharing knowledge more generally. This is partly a reaction against Brazil's attempt to develop a national computer industry in the 1970s and 1980s (which was a tremendous failure but which trained a generation of good computer scientists). Already there is an active open source software development community in Brazil, and the nation is an early adopter of open source software. In the future, other open source movements that play to Brazilian strengths -- most notably, the open source biotechnology movement -- may be met with equal enthusiasm in Brazil. More broadly, the open source world represents a radically different model from the closed intellectual autarky model that drove Brazilian science and technology policy through the 1980s. Brazilian policymakers and science administrators still harbor ambitions of developing a world-class scientific community, but as part of the global scientific network, not independent of it.
Implications
Improvement of the environment as Brazil's economy moves from a basis in agriculture and exploitation of natural resources to a basis in knowledge
Potential for the invention of new institutional forms for scientific research and practice
Encouragement of other emerging nations, particularly in Latin America and Africa
Early indicators
Establishment by Duke University neuroscientist Miguel Nicolelis of a neuroscience institute in Natal, in northern Brazil
Growth in science funding
Growth in scientific output as measured by patents and journal articles
Growth in MA and PhD production -- fewer than 5,000 MAs were awarded in Brazil in 1987, while more than 25,000 were awarded in 2003

What To Watch:
New international research projects and institutes are founded in Brazil.
New industry-academic initiatives are created.
Rates of patenting and start-ups among university faculty increase.

Leaders:
Institutions:

International Institute of Neuroscience of Natal [<http://natalneuroscience.com/>link]
The State of São Paulo Research Foundation
The National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)
Ministry of Science and Technology
National Institute of Advanced Studies, Rio de Janeiro
Global Network on IPR Research, Birkbeck College, UK
Federal Universities of Rio de Janeiro
University of Brasilia
University of Sao Paolo
Drivers & Inhibitors
Growth of international cooperative research efforts
Increasing reverse migration of people and programs
Stablisation of domestic research funding (in contrast to Brazil's tendency toward boom and bust cycles in science funding)
Parallels & Precedents
Movement of European nations in the 19th and early 20th centuries from agricultural and industrial to science-based and knowledge-intensive economies[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]
Sources
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The contents of this paper were supplied by the Institute for the Future, and have been reviewed by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy.