Environment > Biosphere >
Quenching the thirst: International water shortages?
Issue ID: 48 Last updated: 17/02/2009 15:12:39
Criteria: Impact:  Likelihood:  Controversy:  Where: Regional When: 21-50yrs+ How Fast: Years
Keywords: environment, water, natural resources, agriculture, industry, international relations
Abstract
Fresh water may become increasingly scarce, with billions living with insufficient access to water. By 2025 two thirds of the world population may suffer water shortages. This may in turn create food shortages, due to irrigation problems. Pressures of the lack of fresh water would be acute in Africa, Middle East, South Asia and Northern China.
Summary
Currently, one-third of the world’s population live in ‘water-stressed countries [1]. It is estimated that by 2025, this figure will have doubled to two-thirds [1].

This means that by 2050 the number of people affected by water shortages is forecast to rise from 400 million in 2003 to 4 billion [2] .

The average global citizen needs only between 20 and 40 litres of water a day for drinking and sanitation. In some affluent countries such as the US and Canada the current consumption stands at over 350 litres per day [2] .

A UN report in 2003 documented symptoms such as dramatic reductions in the size of Asia's Aral Sea, Africa's Lake Chad and Iraq's Marshlands, and the rise of coastal waters because of climate changes. Some developing nations could face water shortages, crop failures and conflict over shrinking lakes and rivers if nothing is done to prevent wasteful irrigation and slow evaporation from reservoirs, and drinking-water systems are not repaired [2] .
Implications
Such water shortages could lead to further problems such as food shortages due to the inability to irrigate fields [1]. The areas most likely to be severely affected include Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, and Northern China [3] and it is argued that lack of water in these regions may be a factor in the rise of terrorism [4] .

In addition to the problem of the quantity of supply, there is also the problem of quality.

More than five million people a year die from waterborne diseases which is ten times the number killed in wars [1]. Those in developing nations are likely to suffer the most with dilapidated water supply infrastructures, and poor irrigation practices causing severe wastage [2]. Further to this, the decrease in water supplies will lead to increasingly poor sanitation practices and expedite the spread of the diseases prevalent in poor quality water [1].

It is also argued that water shortages might be a cause of terrorism [4] . For example, the middle east has 1% of the world’s freshwater supply, which needs to be shared between 5% of the world’s population [4] . There is understandably a strain on water resources, and as a result in some parts of the West Bank water is brought in trucks. Such water is limited for drinking and some for irrigation. Indeed the lack of water for irrigation could lead to a decline in agriculture that may result in an increase in poverty fostering feelings of frustration that might lead to terrorism [4] .

Disputes over shared water resources could lead to full scale conflict [5] . The Tigris river for example runs through an area that is both potentially unstable (from Turkey to Iran via Syria and Iraq) and very short of water. The actions of Turkey could have severe ramifications for the quantity and quality of the water that flows into Syria, and in extreme cases it is argued this could escalate into full scale conflict [5] .

There may also be a huge economic impact as a result of this water shortage. With water described as the ‘oil of the 21st century [6], those countries rich in reserves of fresh water can export what they don’t need themselves for huge profits. Canada for example, is estimated to hold 20 percent of the world’s fresh water, yet with its small population and cool climate has enormous surpluses, which many feel that the nation should export [6]. Others feel there is an inherent danger in selling such a valuable resource as it may result in eventual ‘water bankruptcy [6].

There are options for tackling the current problems of scarce water supplies. The UNEP identifies low cost tube well irrigation and other mechanisms of delivering water to semi-arid regions as having been successful in regions such as Eastern India [7].

Whilst such low cost mechanisms do exist, many of the more complex challenges come with high price tags. A UN backed commission on water in 2000, put the figure at tackling worldwide water scarcity at $100 billion. By comparison, the figure to tackle HIV and AIDS in the same regions would be $20 billion [1]. Even if the money can be found, the corruption that is rife in many countries short of water may lead to the money being spent improperly or not at all.

Other solutions such as desalination, treating waste water and drip irrigation – which drastically cuts the amount of water required – are likewise costly and have their own disadvantages (a huge build up of brine in the case of desalination). One thing that many experts agree on is that one of the best solutions to this problem is not expensive if well-intentioned dam building projects, but to train people to manage existing water systems more efficiently, and to prioritise distribution among multiple users [2] , [7]. There is a definite need to use the water we already have more efficiently rather than harvesting our rivers and other water sources further [1]. Failure to do this could indeed lead to the ‘water bankruptcy’ that some fear.
Early indicators
First water in the Near East and/or Eastern Africa.
Droughts emerging in hitherto unaffected regions of the world (e.g. the Mid-East “stans”).
Drivers & Inhibitors
Drivers:
Increasing global consumption driven by population growth and wasteful habits.
Poor pipe work resulting in massive leakage.
Failure to maintain their infrastructure.
Climate change.

Inhibitors:
Water conservation schemes.
Training in water management.
Desalination.
Parallels & Precedents
Droughts in Kenya and South Africa in 2004 affecting food security.
Droughts in many other parts of Africa historically (e.g. Ethiopia in 1980s) that led to Band Aid.
[1] [2] [3] [8] [4] [9] [5] [10][11][12] [6] [7]
Sources
Ref.PublisherDateTitleCategoryEvidenceStimulus
1BBC[1] Kirby, Alex (2004) 'Water scarcity: A looming crisis?' BBC News, 19th OctoberVisit siteEnv
2Other[2] Vergano, Dan (2003) 'Water shortages will leave world in dire straits', USA Today, 26th JanuaryVisit siteEnv
3Other[3] Prime Minister's Strategy Unit (2006) 'Strategic Challenges: The Future and How to Think About it', 24th FebruaryVisit siteEnv
4BBC[5] Sutherland, Ben (2003) 'Water shortages 'foster terrorism', BBC News. 18 MarchVisit siteEnv
5Other[7] The Inventory of Conflict & Environment (1997), 'Tigris-Euphrates River Dispute', NovemberVisit siteEnv
6Other[11] Selling Canada's water, CBC News Online August 25, 2004Visit siteEnv
7Other[12] United Nations Environment Programme, Water Scarcity Knowledge fileVisit siteEnv
8Other[4] JDCC Strategic TrendsVisit siteEnv
9India Resource Center[6] India Resource Center (2004) 'Police Attack Coca-Cola Protest, Over 350 Arrested', November 25thVisit siteEnv
10Other[8] Water Education Foundation (2000) 'California Issues: Briefing on California Water Issues'Visit siteEnv
11Sonoran Institute[9] Cornelius, Steve et. al.(2005) 'Recent Developments on the California River: Implications for Delta Conservation', Sonoran Institute. Visit siteEnv
12Other[10] Movement for a Socialist Furture (2004) 'Ghana Workers fight water sell-off', 30th MarchVisit siteEnv
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The contents of this paper were provided by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy.