Environment > Human Impact >
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| The taboo solution: Can population management be a solution to climate change? |
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| Issue ID: |
406 |
Last updated: 11/02/2009 16:12:19
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Criteria:  |
Impact:  |
Likelihood:  |
Controversy:  |
Where: Global |
When: 21-50yrs+ |
How Fast: Years |
| Keywords: |
climate, population, demographics, resources |
Abstract  |
| Scientists are in broad agreement about the causes and likely effects of climate change, but there is still significant debate in the public sphere about how to tackle it. Some suggest that intervention to reduce the rate of global population growth is the only way to tackle the array of complex, interrelated problems likely to result from climate change: resource scarcity, international security problems and poverty. Managing the population at a national level also throws up a number of complex questions relating to dependency rates, the state of the labour market, economic growth, immigration policy and racial cohesion. |
| Summary |
The Earth currently supports some 6.7 billion people, with a possible increase to 9.7 billion by 2050. [1] The growth of the human population is perhaps the most significant driver of the complex problems we face, including climate change, poverty and resource scarcity.
Historical population extinctions (for example, Chaco Canyon and Easter Island) have demonstrated the potential impact of excessive population pressure on human communities. The interconnectedness of the international economy suggests that such disasters in the current era would be likely to affect not just isolated groups but the whole of humanity. [2][3] At the same time, climate change is increasingly influencing political and economic decision-making around the world [4] as it drives extreme weather conditions with significant human impact, whether extreme drought in Sub-Saharan Africa, [5] flooding claiming millions of lives in South Asia, [6] heat waves of 2003 and 2006 [7] causing hundreds of ‘extra’ deaths across Europe [8] or widespread flooding in the UK in 2007 leaving thousands of homes ruined. [9]
Overpopulation is not simply about number in the population, it is crucially about "the numbers of people, how much they consume, and what kind of technologies they use." [1] Resource scarcity and the availability of food and water in particular, is just one issue connecting the challenges of demographic change and climate change. Growing populations worldwide [10] will require more food and water yet there are already problems with feeding a growing population. [10] Food scarcity may intensify as a result of the diversion of grain production for biofuels [11] and the continued popularity of high input foods, notably meat, [12] across the developing world. UN figures suggest meat production puts more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than transport contributing to climate change. [13]
The effects of climate change whether severe flooding or exceptional and unusual weather conditions [14] may mean delayed harvests, restricted food production or even no production at all. Decreasing and irregular supply of food accompanied by increased demand may lead to a sustained rise in food prices [15] with already vulnerable communities the most likely to suffer. [15]
While birth rates in Europe are barely sufficient to replace current population levels, [16] populations in the developing world are still growing extremely rapidly. Some suggest that developing country birth rates in the vast majority of nations are down on previous generations, and that exponential population growth will reach a ‘natural’ end point within a century. [17] However, many believe we are approaching a ‘breaking point’ beyond which our planet simply cannot sustain such levels of human habitation, consumption and emissions [18] and some believe we have already exceeded this threshold.
A large cohort of reproductive age is still making its impact felt today, as the 'Baby Boom' generation did in the developed world two generations ago. [19] The effects of population on climate are amplified by increases in consumption; as standards of living in the developing world rise, so will emissions from power generation, transport, industry and homes. [20] Diseases and disasters which have the potential to exert downward pressure on populations through increasing mortality rates in the population of childbearing age (such as HIV/AIDS) have not had as significant an effect as some predicted. [21]
Government policy on climate change has tended to focus almost solely on influencing the behaviour of individual consumers and businesses in order to reduce emissions and resource consumption, [22] and providing funding for research into technological solutions to CO2 emissions [23] and the natural resource problems they cause. [24] Some critics, however, suggest these changes are too gradual and a greater effort needs to be made to address population growth more directly. [25]
Proponents of a population-based approach to climate change mitigation argue that it is necessary to focus on improving health, sanitation and education in the developing world, in order to encourage a downward shift in birth rates; they hope to achieve this through a reduction in child mortality and an increase in the workforce participation and status of women. [26] This could also be reinforced by increasing the availability of contraception and abortion services. [27] While there are examples of countries directly addressing population growth and achieving substantial reductions in birth rates (such as China, Indonesia and India) [28][29][30] it is unclear how much is attributable to policy and how much to ‘natural’ factors such as rising standards of living and culture change. [31]
Successfully managing population growth would require full buy-in from developing world governments, and commitment from international donor countries, NGOs and charities. [32] While many developed nations are at least engaging in the debate about climate change, and have mostly committed to emissions reduction targets, commitment to mitigation remains limited in less developed countries whose economic growth is fuelled by having a large, cheap labour force. [33] Developing world governments tend to use two arguments when resisting pressure to join climate change mitigation efforts. Firstly, they downplay their own contribution to world CO2 emissions by highlighting the size of their population (and therefore low levels of emissions per capita). Recent media coverage has tended to argue that this should not be accepted as it allows the ‘lucky few’ with air-conditioned apartments and private jets to get away with world record levels of emissions. [34] Secondly, developing countries insist that the developed world needs to clean up its own act on emissions before putting pressure on other less well-off countries to do so. [35] China has argued that it has been at the forefront of climate change mitigation for years as a result of its 'one child' policy and therefore has should not have to commit to binding reduction emission targets. [36]
Currently the UK population stands at over 60 million and is projected to grow to nearly 71 million by 2074. This figure has been set against an “optimum” population of between 20 and 30 million (based on the ability of domestic agriculture, industry and housing space to support UK citizens comfortably and independently of global markets). [37] Population campaigners therefore argue that the UK has a serious overpopulation problem, but that this problem is “hidden” by virtue of the UK's privileged position in the global economy. Ecological footprint studies show that the current UK population actually requires land of the area of 3.6 UKs to feed and supply itself; the extra land required for our lifestyles is abroad and the goods it produces have to be imported. [38] For the country to support an increase of more than 10 million people over the next 60 or so years without increasing emissions, each Briton would have to reduce his or her per capita emissions by 14 per cent.[39]
Although the UK has committed to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050, [40] current progress does not suggest that this will be an easy task. Furthermore, it is possible that the perceived inevitability of climate change-related disasters may shift public opinion away from a commitment to reducing emissions. [41]
While reductions in emissions through adaptations to industrial technology and household use of energy may be achievable, commitment to addressing climate change through population control does not appear to be on the political agenda in the developed world. Indeed, current policies relating to the family (such as child benefit) in some nations (such as Russia and Australia) appears to be focused on increasing, rather than decreasing the size of the family [42] in order to safeguard national power and productivity (and avoid the dangers of a high dependency ratio) by ensuring a large population of working age. [43] The Chinese government is the only government to have "connected population numbers to global warming." [1]
While environmentalism has increased rapidly in popularity in the developed world, [44] and while family size has indeed come down drastically over the last two generations due to economic pressures and cultural change, citizens who are willing to take action to regulate their own family size specifically on the grounds of safeguarding the planet are in a minority. [45] Increases in immigration from developing world nations whose traditional cultures still look favourably on a large family also work against this trend. [46]
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| Implications |
While the international community has numerous bodies for the discussion of climate change, [47][48][49][50] the issue of population management may yet displace climate change as the key challenge facing humanity. The role of the international community, the place of the UK within such a community and the broader question of making and enforcing decisions around population management may become increasingly important.
Multilateral, international level action to manage population could take the form of conditional loans or through extending the role of the international family planning movement through bodies such as the International Family Planning Leadership Programme (IFPLP). [76] The use of conditional loans has been shown to be effective in programmes such as the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, [51] despite having many opponents in the development community. [52] Given that economic growth and development have been shown to promote reductions in fertility, aid could increasingly be managed by bodies that are part of the international family planning movement. Conditional loans may be an unproductive approach given increasing availability of aid from nations such as China which may not always come with such 'strings attached’. [53] Tough action may be considered by critics as neo-colonialist and developing nations are likely to assert their rights to enjoy the same population-fuelled economic growth that created the dominant economic power of the developed world. [54]
Any international or national decision-making body will have to consider the implications for security as a result of climate change. Security analysts suggest that these changes will increase competition for scarce resources, which may lead to ”invasion of others, movement of refugees, ethnic rivalries and terrorist/guerrilla action against rich countries”. [55] Rising world temperatures, sea levels, drought, famine and flooding may increase the chances of large populations being displaced from their homes, and reduced willingness of neighbouring countries to come to their aid as they may well be almost as badly affected themselves. [56] Members of the international community may have to consider taking a more pre-emptive peacekeeping role in regions affected adversely by climate change.
Given that climate change affects the poorest to such an extent that it has been characterised as "the world's biggest regressive tax" [77] we may see an extension of schemes already in place, for example, taxes on international flights to be directed towards population management measures such as family planning and female education programmes in the developing world. Furthermore, a rights based approach to climate change may mean that the poorest countries may be able to seek redress under international law for the environmental costs they suffer. [77] There are currently a number of cases being mounted by Pacific island nations seeking reparations from developed world governments and multinational corporations for the impact of climate change on their communities. [57] Such reparations packages may include a significant reconsideration of migration and asylum policy across the developed world. [58] Conventional foreign aid could be supplemented by taking responsibility for climate change refugees which may in turn undermine support for domestic governments [59] and involvement with multinational bodies such as the UN.
Population management may be an issue that is more effectively dealt with at a domestic rather than international level [38] external intervention in private decisions is likely to create opposition. [30][31] (78) There is also a risk of a religious backlash to any measures designed to manage population especially given current opposition to abortion in the US, the Catholic church and Islam. [60] Population management domestically would perhaps see some combination of incentives, whether using overt policy measures such as taxes and less obvious social marketing methods to discourage large families. Jonathon Porrit has suggested that future UK population policy combine consideration of family planning and immigration with a long term aim to manageably decrease population.[79] While dealing with total numbers of people it may be equally effective to address related issues such as household size. When people live in smaller households they tend to consume more of everything. [1] Government policy may develop to incorporate this thinking and provide incentives such as financial penalties for single person households or a reduction in the number of single person households built.
International obligations such as responsibilities to refugees escaping climate change disaster could lead to overcrowding and ‘enclaving’ in some areas of the country, leading to community cohesion problems, increased support for radical nationalist parties such as the BNP, racial scapegoating and inter-ethnic violence. [61] On the other hand, it is possible to take the view that domestic population is not a problem that needs fixing. Some studies show that emigration is at record levels, [39] and many migrants from an expanded Europe are returning to their home countries as a result of economic turbulence in the UK and increases in the value of their domestic currencies on the international market. [62] The authors of these studies also remind us that a lower population also has economic and social advantages: with fewer children, far less of society's resources will be needed to support and educate them, and crime rates are likely to drop. Other advantages of slow population growth include less pressure to expand national infrastructure and employment and perhaps greater incentives to increase economic efficiency and productivity, potentially leading to a better competitive position for the UK in the global marketplace. A shortage of domestic labour is also increasingly irrelevant as globalisation allows for the outsourcing of jobs to developing countries, which have large cohorts of well educated young people. [39] |
| Early indicators |
Germany raises state pensions age to 70 for both men and women.
US lifts anti-abortion stance in aid policy, increases funding of ‘Healthy Mother Healthy Baby programme for Africa by $100 million.
International Court rules in favour of awarding compensation to Tuvalu in recompense for effects of climate change.
UN inaugurates Commission on Population Management & Growth Stabilisation, China and India still debating membership.
Australia scraps incentives for multiple births, increases budget spend on recruiting skilled migrants.
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| Drivers & Inhibitors |
Drivers:
* Increasing cost of living in developed and developing world disincentivises families to have more children.
* Increasing public awareness of the consequences of climate change and population pressures through the media and experience of extreme weather events.
* International consensus on the human factor behind climate change and limited effectiveness of behavioural policies/incentives.
* Global food shortages and price rises affecting all nations.
Inhibitors:
*Increasing burden on taxpayer and social services by large pensioner cohort.
*Cheap labour in China remains competitive advantage; supports western economies via supply of cheap manufactured goods.
*The failure of multilateral institutions and a reinvigorated culture of state sovereignty. Linked to a rise in population nationalism.
*Scientists yet to find effective cures for malaria, dengue fever, HIV/AIDS, and curable diseases such as cholera still rampant in poor communities of the developing world.
*Cultural barriers to widespread use of contraception increase with rise in religious fundamentalism.
*Birth control is unlikely to be considered an appropriate method to fight against climate change [44] |
| Parallels & Precedents |
China’s one child policy [30] and forced sterilisations in India. [31] Less extreme population control programmes in place in many other nations such as Indonesia. [32]
In November 2007 Toni Vernelli publicised her case to terminate her pregnancy and to follow up with sterilisation on the grounds that she wanted to “protect the planet” from over-population and climate change. [63]
1990s conflict in Rwanda linked to uneven distribution of resources, drought and poor harvests. [2]
Migration Watch UK blame migrants for much of Britain’s current housing crisis. [64]
Singapore's Stop at Two Campaign. (1980's) [4][2][3][57][5][6][7][8][9][10][12][15][65][55][56][58][18][16][17][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][36][34][38][37][39][42][43][45][44][41][66][47][48][49][50][67][51][52][53][54][60][59][61][68][69][46][70][71][72][62][63][64][73][74][75][11][13][14][35][40][1] |
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| The contents of this paper were provided by the Outsights-Ipsos MORI Partnership. Any views expressed are independent of government and do not constitute government policy. |
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